What Candy You’ll Actually Get This Halloween — Ranked by Odds, Not Hype

If you’re planning to “inspect” your kid’s Halloween loot (a.k.a. steal from it), good news — you’ve got a solid shot at snagging the good stuff.

The sports betting site Action Network decided to turn trick-or-treating into a numbers game. They crunched national sales data from Instacart, DoorDash, and other candy sellers, factoring in everything from population density to the average number of houses kids visit. The result? A set of odds for which candies you’re most likely to find in your kid’s plastic pumpkin on Halloween night.

The numbers don’t lie — and neither do those orange wrappers. Here’s how the top ten shake out, along with a little reality check from anyone who’s ever done a “dad tax” on Halloween candy:

1. Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups – 67% chance
America’s Halloween MVP. Two out of three homes will hand out peanut butter cups, which feels low — but data doesn’t account for parents like you hoarding them early. If your kid doesn’t come home with at least one Reese’s, it’s a neighborhood failure.

2. Peanut M&Ms – 65%
Still chocolate, still safe, and they double as “road snacks” after trick-or-treating. The peanut-to-chocolate ratio is America’s favorite balance of sweet and salty.

3. Regular M&Ms – 62%
Classic, portable, and the candy equivalent of a house that has its lights on but didn’t really try. You’ll see them — but you won’t brag about it.

4. Kit Kats – 60%
Break me off a piece of predictable perfection. Kit Kats thrive because they feel different in texture, not flavor. You’ll get them, you’ll eat them, and you’ll forget about them by November 2nd.

5. Snickers – 58%
Chocolate, caramel, peanuts — the holy trinity of Halloween satisfaction. The only problem: people buy the fun size, which feels like a cruel prank wrapped in brown paper.

6. Sour Patch Kids – 55%
The gateway candy for kids who pretend they don’t like chocolate. Sour Patch Kids continue their reign among sugar-fueled chaos lovers.

7. Hershey’s Milk Chocolate Bars – 50%
Half of all kids will get one, and 100% of those bars will melt into the couch cushions by the weekend.

8. Milky Way – 45%
The candy that feels like it should be more popular but never is. Still, you’ll get at least one — usually from a house run by someone who’s nostalgic for the ’80s.

9. Twix – 33%
Only one in three trick-or-treaters score a Twix, which explains why no one’s willing to share. Pro tip: check the bottom of the bag. Kids tend to save them for last.

10. Gummy Bears – 33%
They’re hanging on for dear life. Half of these are from people who “don’t eat chocolate,” the other half are from bulk-buy bins that smelled like laundry detergent.

Not every house believes in joy. The study also ran the numbers on items that make kids question humanity:

And if you’re wondering who’s to blame for candy corn’s continued existence, the map has answers.

The most candy-corn-happy state? Mississippi, where kids have a 46% chance of getting it. Nebraska’s close behind at 45%, which says more about weather than taste. Meanwhile, Hawaii has the lowest candy-corn odds at just 11%, followed by Florida at 15% — further proof that sunshine improves judgment.

If you want the most efficient return on your Halloween night “parental candy tax,” the numbers are clear:
Go after the peanut butter cups first, keep your eye on the yellow M&Ms, and don’t waste bag space hoping for Twix.

The odds favor chocolate — and let’s be honest — so do you.

Because when it comes to Halloween economics, it’s not about who earned the candy. It’s about who paid for the costume.