What’s the Chance of Michigan Getting a Major Earthquake?
It’s not common for Michigan to get a major earthquake, but Michigan does get earthquakes. On Friday (Aug. 2), the U.S. Geological Survey confirmed that an earthquake was centered in Lake Michigan with a magnitude of 2.9. Experts reported the earthquake around 9:18 a.m. EST, and the quake was positioned about 24 miles east-southeast from Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin. So, what’s the likelihood of Michigan getting a major earthquake in the future? Here’s what experts say.
What’s the Likelihood of Michigan Getting a Major Earthquake?
It’s actually possible that Michigan could get a damaging earthquake in the next 100 years. Of course, our area doesn’t have the risk associated with places such as California or Alaska. But, it does come with risk. The recent earthquake was a small one, with the magnitude of 2.9, but some residents on the Wisconsin side of Lake Michigan said they felt it. Also, the depth of Friday’s earthquake was recorded at 10.9 kilometers, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, so it was a shallow earthquake.
A recent report from the experts at USGS.gov lays out the likelihood of getting a damaging earthquake in Michigan and beyond. According to a U.S. Geological Survey that was conducted by more than 50 scientists and engineers, around 75% of the U.S. could experience “damaging earthquake shaking” in the coming years. To conduct the study, they used the USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) “to create a color-coded map that pinpoints where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur based on insights from seismic studies, historical geologic data, and the latest data-collection technologies.” The study also noted that earthquakes are already a reality for much of the U.S., as “37 U.S. states have experienced earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 during the last 200 years, highlighting a long history of seismic activity across this country.”
Of course, you can’t really predict a major earthquake. It’s not like seeing rain clouds coming into your area. But, by the researchers investigating faults and past earthquakes, scientists are able to determine the likelihood of future earthquakes and their severity. So, it’s useful information.
Now, let’s get into how likely it is that Michigan will get a major earthquake. According to the study, the chance of a slight, or greater, damaging earthquake shaking in the next 100 years is anywhere from 5% or less in certain areas of Michigan, mainly the upper Michigan aeras, or between 5% to 25% in lower areas of Michigan. So, in Michigan, we have an upwards of a 25% risk of getting such an earthquake in the next century. The states with the highest risk, according to the map, are mainly California and Alaska.
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